ARR waterfall
View how to build an ARR waterfall from source data, forecast each movement and view it by region or product.
How ARR waterfall works in Drivetrain
Everything builds on bringing in your ARR metrics from source systems. From there, roll ending ARR forward, forecast each movement, and view the results by dimension, period or chart.
View ARR movement by region, product or any dimension
- See beginning ARR, new, expansion, contraction, churn and ending ARR in one model, with each period's ending ARR carried into the next.
- Regroup the same metrics by region, product or another dimension without changing the calculations, and filter to a single slice.
- See where actuals end and the forecast begins, and switch between scenarios such as best case and worst case.
Bring in ARR metrics from your source systems
- Add each ARR metric by name and bring in its actuals from a billing platform, CRM, BI tool or spreadsheet.
- Set the number format, currency and decimal places for each metric.
Roll ending ARR into the next period's beginning ARR
- Calculate ending ARR as beginning ARR plus new and expansion ARR, minus contraction and churn.
- Set beginning ARR to reference the previous period's ending ARR, so balances carry forward.
- Use the same approach to roll forward any balance or to reference a specific period.
Forecast expansion, contraction and churn with drivers
- Forecast a movement as a percentage of beginning ARR, for example expansion and contraction at different rates.
- Forecast from history, for example churn as an average of recent months to smooth out spikes.
Forecast new ARR from sales funnel assumptions
- Keep funnel inputs such as leads, win rate and ACV in a separate assumptions model.
- Forecast each input its own way, such as an average, a linear regression or a fixed value, and overwrite any month by hand.
- Reference those inputs in the waterfall, so changes to the assumptions flow into new ARR.
Switch between monthly, quarterly and yearly roll-ups
- Roll the model up by month, quarter or year.
- Show beginning ARR as the start of the period and ending ARR as the end of the period, with the movements in between summed.
- Change how each metric summarizes over time.
Visualize ARR movement as a waterfall chart
- Turn the model's metrics into a waterfall chart in a report.
- Add commentary, apply filters, share the report and present it in full screen.
How Drivetrain simplifies ARR waterfall reporting
Bring new, expansion, contraction and churn ARR in from your CRM, billing system or spreadsheets, instead of assembling them by hand.
Forecast each ARR movement with its own driver, not one growth rate for the whole total.
See ARR movement by product, region or segment without rebuilding the calculations.
FAQs
Which systems can Drivetrain pull ARR data from?
Billing platforms, CRMs, BI tools and spreadsheets. Each ARR metric is added by name, and its actual data comes in from the connected source.
Can Drivetrain show ARR by product or region?
Yes. The same metrics can be regrouped by region, product or any other dimension without changing the calculations, and filters narrow the view to a single slice.
Can Drivetrain forecast churn differently from expansion and contraction?
Yes. Each movement has its own forecast method. For example, expansion and contraction can each be a percentage of beginning ARR, while churn uses an average of past months.
Can Drivetrain forecast new ARR from our sales funnel?
Yes. New ARR can reference funnel inputs such as leads, win rate and ACV, kept in a separate assumptions model. When those inputs change, new ARR updates with them.
Can Drivetrain show the ARR waterfall by quarter or year?
Yes. The model switches between monthly, quarterly and yearly roll-ups. Beginning ARR shows the start of the period, ending ARR shows the end of the period, and the movements in between are summed.
Can Drivetrain turn the ARR forecast into a waterfall chart?
Yes. The model's metrics can be shown as a waterfall chart in a report, where you can add commentary, apply filters and share it with stakeholders.
See Drivetrain in action
Fewer spreadsheets, faster planning, better decisions.
